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Daily analysis, November 12 – Teachers Tournament QF #2

November 12, 2013

After the second day of the tournament, everyone’s still alive. Which two wild-card hopefuls will be on edge for Wednesday’s game?

Cover 20131112

Another high-scoring affair for two of our players. Will the leader look to win outright? Or will he preserve his chances for a wild card?

Patrick Dillon: 19,200
MaryBeth Hammerstrom: 15,200
Kati Sorenson: 4,400

Patrick went with a wager of 7,502. I assume he thought Mary Beth might go for 11,501 but I can’t tell you why.

Final Jeopardy November 12 2013 - 01

Patrick might have had a very high threshold for his wild card, but had I been in his shoes, I’d have wagered 2,400 or 2,401.

Here’s why: if Mary Beth wants to stay above Kati regardless, she’ll wager up to 6,399 (or maybe 6,400, although that risks a tiebreaker if Patrick goes for the lock-out).

Final Jeopardy November 12 2013 - 02

If Mary Beth responds correctly with that wager, she’ll have 21,599. Patrick could cover that with 2,400 and a right answer. This strategy is known as Shore’s Conjecture and appears more useful in theory than in practice.

Final Jeopardy November 12 2013 - 03

Quarterfinal winners:

Anne Baxter
Patrick Dillon

Wild-card standings, with my estimate of probability of advancing in parentheses:

Mary Beth Hammerstrom: 20,000 (99%)
Katie Moriarty: 16,400 (90%)
Rico Vazquez: 11,400 (6%)
Kati Sorenson: 399 (1%)


The Final Jeopardy! clue for November 12, 2013:

HISTORIC OBJECTS
IN 1802, 3 YEARS AFTER IT WAS DISCOVERED, IT WAS MOVED TO LONDON UNDER THE TERMS OF THE SURRENDER OF ALEXANDRIA

Correct response: What is the Rosetta Stone?

From → Daily analysis

One Comment
  1. Kelly permalink

    I agree that the $2,400/$2,401 bet idea for Patrick is a good one, since even if Mary Beth goes bigger he’d still be in almost certain territory for a wildcard (in fact if he bet zero as-is he’d still be in “very likely” area). Like you said this kind of scenario is one where the “shoretegic” bet can make sense since if it fails you’re not automatically out (to be fair from when I was on the old Sony board the guy who created this idea, Bob Shore, did not include tournament quarterfinals in his analysis because when it’s not winner-take-all the leader has reason to limit his/her wager in some cases).

    From Mary Beth’s position any bet up to the $6,399/$6,400 you suggested would be sensible IMO (more than that she makes herself vulnerable to Kati and is unlikely to help her out if right since she’d be in almost certain WC territory with the max bet you and I suggested). Likewise with Kati, since she’d have a poor WC score if she bet nothing and she needed to get Final right to have enough to possibly win outright, she might as well go big.

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