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Daily analysis, November 8

November 8, 2013

It’s our last day of regular play for a few weeks. Let’s gear up for the Teachers Tournament!

Cover 20131108

Rani has three wins but hasn’t been the most-impressive player we’ve seen. She’s trailing going into Final.

Rani Peffer: 7,800
Amanda DeMeola: 10,200
Vimal Murthy: 12,000

Vimal should wager at least 8,400 to cover Amanda.

Amanda should wager at least 5,400 (to cover Rani) and no more than 6,600 (to stay above Vimal if they both miss).

Rani should wager between 2,400 (to cover a zero wager by Amanda) and 3,000 (to stay above both Amanda and Vimal if all three miss Final).

Some advanced game theory follows!

There are some additional possibilities here. These scores fit a special situation: “1.5 times first’s score equals the sum of second and third”, or (3/2)A = B + C.

If Rani wants to cover a zero wager by Vimal, she should wager 4,200. But that’s the most she can wager so as not to fall below him if they both miss. So Rani has an alternative forced wager: 4,200.

As a result, perhaps Vimal should consider wagering for the tie. And if Amanda thinks Vimal recognizes this possibility and wagers for the tie, she might go for everything.

This is a weak argument, though. It assumes that Rani thinks Vimal might wager zero, and that the probability of him doing so is so high that she should risk her chances against Amanda to take advantage of it.

But Vimal would be foolish to wager zero here, with both Rani and Amanda able to overtake him. If he’s really scared of the category he could consider wagering 4,800.

Still, I have to ding Vimal because – as we have seen many times – most players do not wager rationally, and the math is the math.

Final Jeopardy wagers November 8 2013

The Final Jeopardy! clue for November 8, 2013:


Correct response: What is Saudi Arabia?

From → Daily analysis

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