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Daily analysis, September 19: Covering a “fearful wager”

September 19, 2013

Today’s analysis includes an invitation for one of the players to explain the thinking behind a wager.

Parth: 13,600
Jared: 10,000
Hillary: 4,800

The wagering here is straightforward.

Parth should wager 6,400 to cover a double-up by Jared
Jared should wager at most 400 to keep Hillary locked out
Hillary should wager at least 2,400 to cover Parth’s total assuming an incorrect response

Parth showed a strong affinity for academic trivia, and not so much for pop culture. Maybe he’ll be afraid to bet big, banking on Jared wagering small. Although he still wagered rationally, Jared’s all-in wager made sense in that light.

The Final Jeopardy! clue for September 19, 2013:

CLASSIC ALBUMS
THIS 1960S ALBUM ENDS WITH THE LINE “I’D LOVE TO TURN YOU ON”

Correct response: What is Sgt. Pepper’s Lonely Hearts Club Band?

Be sure to check out Part One of my “How to wager” series, which provides the framework for wagering when two players are involved.The Final Wager daily cover 20130918

From → Daily analysis

2 Comments
  1. Hi!

    I just stumbled on this today and thought I might as well share my wagering decision-making process:

    I knew my only hope was that Parth would bet to cover Jared betting it all, and I had to hope both would get it wrong. I was the oldest person in the game, Sgt. Pepper was released the year I was born, so I thought there was at least an outside chance they’d both miss it when I saw the category.

    Parth did as I expected, betting $6,401, enough to win by a dollar if he answered correctly. And Jared also did as I expected, betting it all. This put me in the best position I could be in, but of course Jared got it right, and so I finished in second place.

    There are obviously tons of things that happen during the game that lead up to that moment, but you can only deal with what you end up with. So, I was happy with the result given my total at the end of Double Jeopardy.

    –Hillary

    • Welcome, Hillary! Thanks for sharing your thoughts, and congrats on a fine game (and on earning the green here).

      I like your attitude – “you can only deal with what you end up with.” Some players will get frustrated from past misses and start guessing randomly, or wager improperly. Just gotta focus on the situation as it is now and put the past behind you!

      Not sure if you saw but I also analyzed possibilities for your Daily Double (http://thefinalwager.co/2013/10/25/hillary-kwiatek-jared-hall-daily-double/). Too much time pressure on a DD blame you for the $3,000!

      Keith

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